Spot gold hovered just below the $2,700 mark on Friday (November 8) and is currently trading near $2,695.88 an ounce.
On the one hand, gold prices were supported by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and expectations of a global easing monetary outlook, as well as safe-haven buying and bargain buying.
On the other hand, the prospect of a stronger dollar after Trump came to power still makes bulls hesitate. This trading day needs to pay attention to the stimulus policies of large Asian countries,
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Fed officials’ speeches, geopolitical news and further market interpretation of the Fed’s decision.
Focus on the top five factors in favour of bulls:
– Fed rate cuts: Expectations for further rate cuts in December rose slightly, from 67% to 73%, with further rate cuts next year, supporting gold prices.
– U.S. election: bullish for the dollar, weighing on gold prices; U.S. stocks rose sharply, suppressing safe-haven demand for gold. The bullish opportunity for gold lies in the possibility of profit-taking in the US dollar.
– Geopolitical situation: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to end, which may suppress gold as a safe haven. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East may limit the downside.
– Economic data: U.S. jobless claims rose slightly last week, suggesting little change in the labour market, supporting the view that hurricanes and strikes slowed job growth in October.
– Holdings: The World Gold Council (WGC) said global physical gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows for the sixth consecutive month in October, turning positive for the first time so far this year.
The author believes that: On the whole, the fundamentals are biased towards bulls in the medium and long term, and short-term changes are biased towards bulls, and the risk lies in whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends. The short-term market may be a little hesitant and have a wait-and-see mood.
Gold short-term trend analysis
Upper resistance references: 2710.10 overnight, Tuesday’s low at 2724.63, 10-day MA at 2732.64, Tuesday’s high at 2750, Friday’s high at 2762.13.
On the 4-hour chart: V-shaped reversal after unilateral decline, MACD and KDJ golden cross, focus on support near 2710, if the resistance is broken, it is expected to rise again to historical highs;
In the short term, there is some resistance near 2724.63 and 2750, respectively.
The 200-period MA below supports at 2688.67, a break below this level weakens the short-term bullish signal, and the 10-period EMA supports at 2675.45, and an unexpected further break below this level will increase the bearish signal for the future.
Overall, the technical picture remains skewed towards the bulls, but there is a risk of a further pullback. Keep an eye out for a breakout in the 2675-2716 area.
Resistance: 2710.10;2716.58;2724.63;2732.64;2750.00;
Support: 2688.67, 2675.45, 2667.49, 2657.40, 2643.32.
Conclusion: Before losing 2675, the opportunity is biased in favour of the bulls.
At 21:00 Hong Kong time, spot gold was at $2691.10 per ounce.
Author: Zhou Tong (Analyst) 08-11-2024
#The above is only the author’s personal opinion and has nothing to do with the company’s position.
#The policy recommendations are for informational purposes only, there are risks in entering the market, and investment needs to be cautious.
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